EUR/USD
The U.S. currency had the biggest weekly decline against the euro in two months as the Fed announced June 18 it will reduce monthly bond-buying while holding its interest-rate target at virtually zero.
The U.S. currency had the biggest weekly decline against the euro in two months as the Fed announced June 18 it will reduce monthly bond-buying while holding its interest-rate target at virtually zero.
The pound rose for a third week as traders had the most bullish futures
wagers since 2007. A gauge of currencies volatility increased from a
record low. EUR/USD gains were enabled as the European Commission
asserted that the Eurozone’s economic outlook is improving. The
Brussels-based institution now sees the Eurozone’s economy expanding by
1.2 per cent this year, up slightly from the 1.1 per cent previously
forecast. They also see the unemployment rate in the currency bloc
edging to 12 per cent.
Forecast:
The EUR/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, using the 1.35 level as support. That being the case, it looks as we continue to bounce around in this general vicinity, using the 200 pips as the range for the market right now. Long-term traders will probably avoid this market, but short-term traders will probably find it very profitable as it looks very well contained and we have very obvious support and resistance levels. However, if we do get above the 1.37 level, we feel that the market will finally go back towards a 1.40 handle. A move below the 1.35 level since this market down to the 1.33 handle.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY ended the week at the 102 range while traders closely monitor the conflict in Iran moving to safe havens while the geopolitical situation boils over.
Forecast:
The EUR/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, using the 1.35 level as support. That being the case, it looks as we continue to bounce around in this general vicinity, using the 200 pips as the range for the market right now. Long-term traders will probably avoid this market, but short-term traders will probably find it very profitable as it looks very well contained and we have very obvious support and resistance levels. However, if we do get above the 1.37 level, we feel that the market will finally go back towards a 1.40 handle. A move below the 1.35 level since this market down to the 1.33 handle.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY ended the week at the 102 range while traders closely monitor the conflict in Iran moving to safe havens while the geopolitical situation boils over.
In
overseas trading overnight, the dollar briefly rose to around ¥102
thanks to a rise in U.S. long-term interest rates following favorable
economic data, including the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s
manufacturing index for June. The dollar was later stuck in a narrow
range around ¥101.85.
Forecast:
The USD/JPY pair went back and forth over the course of the week, as continue to meander in a fairly tight consolidation area. It’s a bit difficult for longer-term traders to be involved in this market, and until it break well above the 103 level, we do not see much of a trade to the long side. As far selling is concerned, we think that there is simply far too much support below to even consider it at this point in time. Ultimately, this market breaks out to the upside, but it might take a while.
GBP/USD
With the British Pound currently trading close to a five-year high against the US Dollar, news of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting can only help enhance the Pound Sterling to US Dollar exchange rate relationship further.
Forecast:
The USD/JPY pair went back and forth over the course of the week, as continue to meander in a fairly tight consolidation area. It’s a bit difficult for longer-term traders to be involved in this market, and until it break well above the 103 level, we do not see much of a trade to the long side. As far selling is concerned, we think that there is simply far too much support below to even consider it at this point in time. Ultimately, this market breaks out to the upside, but it might take a while.
GBP/USD
With the British Pound currently trading close to a five-year high against the US Dollar, news of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting can only help enhance the Pound Sterling to US Dollar exchange rate relationship further.
Thursday has seen the UK
retail sales report fall slightly short of predictions; however it’s
still lent the Pound some underlying support. The Pound is displaying
stability against the US Dollar as the US Federal Reserve is currently
showing no intention of increasing interest rates. The Federal Open
Market Committee also dropped its initial forecast of a long term
interest rate from 4-3.75%.Forecast:
The GBP/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, but closed above the 1.70 handle, a significant move to the upside. That was a pretty strong barrier for us, and we believe that it opens the way to the 1.75 level as a target. It will probably take a bit of time, but we do believe that eventually that level gets hit. If we pull back from here, we would fully anticipate buyers stepping into the market and lifting the British pound yet again.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD ended the week close to the 94 mark at 0.9383 staying strong after positive data and promises from the Chinese Premier that China will meet its growth expectations regardless of what the government needs to do.
The
currency soared after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The ‘Aussie’ fell
from its highest level in two months against the US Dollar after peaking
at 94.33, the highest level witnessed since April 10th. The Australian
dollar has more than shaken off a slight dovish shift by the Reserve
Bank of Australia and has not spent much time beneath 94 cents since the
FOMC meeting. It seems likely the market would at some stage like to
inquire as to what kind of supply is above 94.4 cents.
Forecast:
The Australian Dollar is now expected to fall against the US Dollar at a quickening pace as the US economy improves and commodity prices fall. The AUD/USD pair went back and forth over the course of the week forming a neutral candle. This neutral candle is still within the consolidation area that we have been in for some time, thereby not really telling us much other than the pressure to breakout to the upside continues. Because of this, we believe that ultimately the Australian dollar does again, but the market has some work to do to make that happen. If we can get a move above the 0.95 handle, we believe that this market goes to the parity level given enough time.
Currency Data from 23 – 27 june
Forecast:
The Australian Dollar is now expected to fall against the US Dollar at a quickening pace as the US economy improves and commodity prices fall. The AUD/USD pair went back and forth over the course of the week forming a neutral candle. This neutral candle is still within the consolidation area that we have been in for some time, thereby not really telling us much other than the pressure to breakout to the upside continues. Because of this, we believe that ultimately the Australian dollar does again, but the market has some work to do to make that happen. If we can get a move above the 0.95 handle, we believe that this market goes to the parity level given enough time.
Currency Data from 23 – 27 june
| Date | Time | Currency | Impact | Particular | Forecast | Previous |
| Mon Jun 23 | 7:15am | CNY | HIGH | HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI | 49.7 | 49.4 |
| 11:30am | JPY | HIGH | BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks | |||
| 2:30pm | EUR | HIGH | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 49.6 | |
| 1:00pm | EUR | HIGH | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 | 52.3 | |
| 7:30pm | USD | HIGH | Existing Home Sales | 4.74M | 4.65M | |
| Tue Jun 24 | 2:00pm | GBP | HIGH | Inflation Report Hearings | ||
| 7:30pm | USD | HIGH | CB Consumer Confidence | 83.6 | 83 | |
| USD | HIGH | New Home Sales | 442K | 433K | ||
| Wed Jun 25 | 6:00pm | USD | HIGH | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Thu Jun 26 | 3:00pm | GBP | HIGH | BOE Gov Carney Speaks | ||
| 6:00pm | USD | HIGH | Unemployment Claims | 314K | 312K | |
| Fri Jun 27 | 4:15am | NZD | HIGH | Trade Balance | 250M | 534M |
| All Day | EUR | HIGH | German Prelim CPI m/m | 0.002 | -0.001 | |
| 2:00pm | GBP | HIGH | Current Account | -17.1B | -22.4B |
